Last Tuesday, the Defense Intelligence Agency released its new unclassified report, “Challenges to Security in Space in 2022.”
A new report from the Defense Intelligence Agency warns that both China and Russia are likely to build more advanced counterspace weapons that will target space satellites and systems that the US depends on.
“This new edition of ‘Challenges to Security in Space’ provides an updated, unclassified overview of current threats to U.S. space-based capabilities, particularly from China and Russia, but also to a lesser extent, those emerging from North Korea and Iran,” states John f. Huth, the DIA defense intelligence officer for space and counterspace, during a Pentagon briefing. “This edition examines the expansion of space operations and details Earth-focused space services, as well as growing efforts to explore the moon and beyond.”
Space has become the newest focus for innovation and development for the Pentagon, as emphasized by the establishment of SpaceWERX and Space Force in 2017 and 2019, respectively. The continued development of Chinese and Russian space weapons indicates that space may soon become the newest battleground, making it vital for American space capabilities to not only keep up but surpass the innovation efforts of its major competitors.
“Russia and China, our primary strategic competitors, are taking steps to undercut the United States and our allies in the space domain,” continues Huth.
In the past three years, the combined Russian and Chinese space fleets have grown by 70%, continuing their pattern of space growth in all major categories. Both nations view space as a requirement to win modern wars and establish themselves as world leaders. While the report states that all efforts have been civil up until this point, their technological and scientific developments can easily act as dual-use to be transitioned into military capabilities. This detail is of concern to the DIA as they continue to monitor the advancements of US competitors’ space operations and how they could pose significant challenges to national security.
“The loss of space-based communication and navigation services could have a devastating impact on warfighters during a conflict — that’s one of the most serious scenarios anticipated. A secure, stable and accessible space domain is crucial as China and Russia’s space-based capabilities and electronic-warfare activities continue to grow,” said DIA Director Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier.
The report details how space is being militarized with the continued maturation of Chinese and Russian capabilities. All of these developments are in an effort to undercut the perceived reliance on the US for space systems.
“As the number of spacefaring nations grow and counterspace capabilities become more integrated into military operations, the U.S. space posture will be increasingly challenged and on-orbit assets will face new risks,” Huth said. “A secure, stable and accessible space domain is crucial as challenges to the United States and our allies’ space capabilities continue to increase.”
On top of highlighting America’s biggest space competitors, the report also emphasizes the increasing threat of on-orbit debris. Growing space operations have ultimately led to orbital congestion, increasing the likelihood that “massive derelict objects” will collide in low-Earth orbit. The report states that this threat will continue to rise “until at least 2030”, and “[e]ven if international and national guidelines were made legally binding, mitigation thresholds were made more stringent, or if compliance were even close to 100%, there would still be a formidable debris problem from the remnants of the first 63 years of space operations.”
Overall, “Challenges to Security in Space in 2022” offers important insight from space experts into the threats the US will face in its space operations and will be used by defense leaders to make important decisions for the future of our space security.
