by: Howard Snow, Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Navy
A lot of attention is currently focused on America and her allies in light of recent events. However, we still need to focus on the big players in the game. The United States Army understands this need. The Army wants to get smart on China’s military structure and tactics. However, before that study is taken we need to take a history lesson.
Let’s focus on China’s actions in and around the Pacific and the adjacent Indian Ocean. China is pushing its borders on land, at sea and in the air toward a number of countries: Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, and India. Afghanistan will have to be placed in a special category as it has been through history. The others are all friends of America with the exception of the last. The United States military has solid relationships with all of these countries as well.
Recently, China tightened governmental controls in Hong Kong, violated both air space and sea lanes around Taiwan, violated Japanese air space, hassled a Malaysian oil rig, sank a Vietnamese shipping boat, militarized man-made islands it had built in Filipino waters and started a border war in the Himalayas with India.
On the last point, if we jump in the “Wayback Machine” with a Peabody and Sherman we see that China and India fought over these same mountain tops in 1962. Under the cover of the Cuban Missile Crisis, China attacked India. China, knowing that the eyes of the world were on the nuclear stand-off in the Caribbean, made a move and established the current borders. Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru called upon President Kennedy for airpower, but the focus of the White House was on the game of chicken in the Caribbean with the Soviet Union and no assistance went to India.
The same happened in 1979, when China sent a million men into Vietnam. The White House had no appetite for another conflict in Southeast Asia. China pushed into Vietnam to punish Vietnam for removing the China-backed government in Cambodia. While both sides declared victory, Vietnam stayed in Cambodia another decade while China’s push reset the border fence 13 miles south in Vietnam.
With the world once again distracted, are we seeing China now making serious moves across the region?
What China can’t take, it will buy. China has been “loaning” Asian and African nations billions of dollars for infrastructure projects. China ships in workers and the host countries pile up debt. All of this happens under the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative. Under this guise linking Asia, Africa and Europe together, China is building railways, highways, bridges, ports and power grids for host countries that are becoming indebted to China.
Countries that are in debt to China: Brunei (oil), Russia (natural gas), Sri Lanka (Indian Ocean seaports), Djibouti (Red Sea ports), Kenya (Indian Ocean Transit ports), Nigeria (heart of Africa, and oil), Croatia (Mediterranean footprint), Chile (satellite global tracking stations), to name just a few.
China has been laying the groundwork to make itself a Global Power. Is the current worldwide medical crisis the needed distraction to make a move? Is the pullout of Afghanistan an opportunity for China?
Some in the Pentagon and on Capitol Hill are paying attention. The Pentagon has delivered a report to Congress outlining a funding request for Chinese deterrence in the Pacific Rim. This report is calling for $20B in funding. Likewise, last year Congressman Mac Thornberry called for $6B in funding for an Indo-Pacific Deterrence Initiative. The House Armed Services Committee for the upcoming FY 22 its annual defense policy bill approved a boost to the Navy’s shipbuilding account and authorizing 13 additional ships. This will provide a greater military presence afloat. These are great starts.
As Ernest Hemingway said, “Never mistake motion for action.” American businesses have the products, services and capabilities to match the development and growth needs of the Indo-Pacific countries and their economies. If we don’t want a Chinese dominated West Pacific and Indian Ocean, we should be out there in force.
